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Don't neglect climate change

In view of current conversations being dominated by events up north in Glasgow - the 26th Conference of Parties (COP26) - I wish to dedicate a post to briefly highlight the implications of anthropogenic warming on water distribution and 'hydropolitics' in southern Africa and the continent more broadly.

This podcast episode I came across encapsulates some impactful and interesting themes surrounding the intersections of climate change and water. Although it mostly examines the Asian context, its ideas can be extrapolated to the African continent:

With existing climatic and political dynamics of the southern Africa region, and exacerbated by climate change, water endowments will be far from static (Goulden et al., 2009). The IPCC's 5th assessment report predicts that - although not certain - southern Africa will likely experience a modest general downward trend in seasonal rainfall, heightened drought vulnerability, and more erratic dry spell frequencies and precipitation onset. In particular, western portions of the region will likely be even drier (Mgquba and Majozi, 2018). Considering a solid bilateral water agreement is already in place in the eastern part of southern Africa through the LHWP, this poses questions for the downstream riparians of western South Africa, Botswana, and Namibia in terms of allocation.

A universal concern raised in the podcast is the emergence and growth of an 'everyone for themselves' scenario - that the water supply and distribution effects of climate change would trigger sovereign nations to instinctively think and act only in their interests. For transboundary basins such as the Orange-Senqu, however, this mentality is untenable and problematic. Management approaches that are not only integrated and collaborative but also flexible and adaptive are crucial. In my next post, we will critically examine the management framework of the Orange-Senqu basin.

Another aspect mentioned is the complexity of balancing demands under climate change. With pressures across food and energy security, urbanisation, and others, a nexus framework that considers all such interlinked aspects together is appropriate. Virtual water, which was touched on briefly, is an encouraging and resilient solution incorporating water, food, and trade/politics - I hope to return to explore this fascinating concept later.

See you next week!

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