A viable solution to transboundary basin allocation issues? The case of southern Africa

Previously, I introduced the premise of water contestation in Africa continentally, outlining a mismatch in water needs and distribution exacerbated by climatic and political factors. I now wish to delve into a region whose transboundary tensions, conflict, and mediation over water I find particularly interesting: southern Africa and the Orange-Senqu river basin.

A large swathe of inland southern Africa is dominated by the previously mentioned kilometre-high plateau and a narrow coastal belt that is especially mountainous towards South Africa - this creates sharp topographic gradients, which have a marked effect on weather systems' movement, orographic precipitation, and hence noticeable rainfall distribution and vegetation gradients across southern Africa (Reason, 2017). The Orange-Senqu basin lies in the heart of the region, with its main river straddling four countries: it rises from Lesotho's Maluti Mountains and traverses westwards across South Africa, Botswana, and Namibia (Kistin and Ashton, 2008). Crucially, average annual potential evaporation varies drastically from roughly 1100mm in the Lesotho Highlands to >3000mm in downstream regions, along with highly erratic (summer) precipitation, low overall rainfall to runoff conversion, and a median coefficient of variation in annual river discharge of 82% (vs 31% globally; Figure 1).

Figure 1: There is a stark east-west contrast in mean annual precipitation within the Orange basin's boundaries (Source).

As the region's largest transboundary basin covering 1 million square kilometres (Mirumachi, 2015), considerable inequalities in water flow and utilisation exist between riparian states, serving as a site of 'hydropolitical' tension and dynamics. South Africa and Lesotho supply approximately 95% of the basin's water, but only the latter riparian state can be said to not face 'water stress'. Lesotho's strategic hydrometeorological conditions offer the country considerable regional advantages relative to downstream riparians, and the country's modest size and population of mean all of its 2.1 million inhabitants lives within the basin's catchment (Kistin and Ashton, 2008). In stark contrast to this is South Africa: it has a population approaching 60 million and a comparatively much larger economy including its highly water-intensive thermal power generation industry in the Gauteng region, but faces high water deficits particularly in northern provinces/regions, high variability, and low population coverage by the Orange basin (ibid.). Evidently, there is a pressing issue of allocation.

Lesotho Highlands Water Project (LHWP)

Efforts to tackle the transboundary water issues described were realised in the continent's largest interbasin water transfer (IWT) effort, the LHWP, whose first phase was completed in 2004. Leveraging Lesotho's abundant water resources, the project is a strategic agreement to transfer water to neighbouring South African regions through an extensive network of tunnels and dams, agreed by, and intended to benefit, both governments. 

Figure 2: Original schematic diagram of the LHWP (Source).

Although supplying South Africa with much-needed freshwater is a major purpose of the scheme, the  LHWP is not simply a redistributive IWT project - Lesotho too benefits through hydroelectricity generated from the project's dam network, which enabled Lesotho to become self-sufficient with electricity production, while fees paid by South Africa for the crucial supply amounts to over 5% of Lesotho's total GDP (Rousselot, 2015). Thanks to the scheme's transfer tunnels, key South African urban centres typically distant from large bluewater sources such as Pretoria and Johannesburg (Figure 2) are much more hydrologically connected, rendering the Lesotho-supplied water both politically and economically valuable. 

The basin's uneven hydrometeorological conditions and resultant large-scale IWT attempt has created interesting national-level power dynamics. Despite being a small enclave within South Africa, Lesotho effectively holds de-facto 'hydro hegemony' over it and other riparian states: industry and urban activity within the Gauteng region in particular has developed a fundamental dependence on Lesotho for its water. Presently, 40% of Lesotho's annual supplies - roughly 2000 million cubic metres - is transferred annually to fulfil South Africa's water demands, and to overall success when considering this dimension alone. But what does the project's governance and management tell us about the LHWP's realities? Stay tuned for my next post!